Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country.

Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing "bottom-up" sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost-effective (available up to $100/tCO2 eq) land-based mitigation is 8-13.8 GtCO2 eq yr-1 between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost-effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost-effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost-effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand-side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75-4.8 GtCO2eq yr-1 ) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand-side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co-benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio-cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land-based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near-term, low-cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land-based measures available, their potential co-benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country-specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship.

National mitigation potential from natural climate solutions in the tropics.

Better land stewardship is needed to achieve the Paris Agreement's temperature goal, particularly in the tropics, where greenhouse gas emissions from the destruction of ecosystems are largest, and where the potential for additional land carbon storage is greatest. As countries enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, confusion persists about the potential contribution of better land stewardship to meeting the Agreement's goal to hold global warming below 2°C. We assess cost-effective tropical country-level potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)-protection, improved management and restoration of ecosystems-to deliver climate mitigation linked with sustainable development goals (SDGs). We identify groups of countries with distinctive NCS portfolios, and we explore factors (governance, financial capacity) influencing the feasibility of unlocking national NCS potential. Cost-effective tropical NCS offers globally significant climate mitigation in the coming decades (6.56 Pg CO2e yr-1 at less than 100 US$ per Mg CO2e). In half of the tropical countries, cost-effective NCS could mitigate over half of national emissions. In more than a quarter of tropical countries, cost-effective NCS potential is greater than national emissions. We identify countries where, with international financing and political will, NCS can cost-effectively deliver the majority of enhanced NDCs while transforming national economies and contributing to SDGs. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Canopy and leaf composition drive patterns of nutrient release from pruning residues in a coffee agroforest.

In a coffee agroforest, the crop is cultivated under the shade of fruit-bearing and nitrogen (N)-fixing trees. These trees are periodically pruned to promote flowering and fruiting as well as to make nutrients stored in tree biomass available to plants. We investigated the effect of canopy composition and substrate quality on decomposition rates and patterns of nutrient release from pruning residues in a coffee agroforest located in Costa Rica's Central Valley. Initial phosphorus (P) release was enhanced under a canopy composed solely of N-fixing, Erythrina poeppigiana compared to a mixed canopy of Erythrina and Musa acuminata (banana). Both initial and final N release were similar under the two canopy types. However, after five months of decomposition, a higher proportion of initial N had been released under the single canopy. Although patterns of decomposition and nutrient release were not predicted by initial substrate quality, mass loss in leaf mixtures rates were well predicted by mean mass loss of their component species. This study identifies specific pruning regimes that may regulate N and P release during crucial growth periods, and it suggests that strategic pruning can enhance nutrient availability. For example, during the onset of rapid fruit growth, a two-species mixture may release more P than a three-species mixture. However, by the time of the harvest, the two- and three-species mixtures have released roughly the same amount of N and P. These nutrients do not always follow the same pattern, as N release can be maximized in single-species substrates, while P release is often facilitated in species mixtures. Our study indicates the importance of management practices in mediating patterns of nutrient release. Future research should investigate how canopy composition and farm management can also mediate on-farm nutrient losses.

Committed carbon emissions, deforestation, and community land conversion from oil palm plantation expansion in West Kalimantan, Indonesia.

Industrial agricultural plantations are a rapidly increasing yet largely unmeasured source of tropical land cover change. Here, we evaluate impacts of oil palm plantation development on land cover, carbon flux, and agrarian community lands in West Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. With a spatially explicit land change/carbon bookkeeping model, parameterized using high-resolution satellite time series and informed by socioeconomic surveys, we assess previous and project future plantation expansion under five scenarios. Although fire was the primary proximate cause of 1989-2008 deforestation (93%) and net carbon emissions (69%), by 2007-2008, oil palm directly caused 27% of total and 40% of peatland deforestation. Plantation land sources exhibited distinctive temporal dynamics, comprising 81% forests on mineral soils (1994-2001), shifting to 69% peatlands (2008-2011). Plantation leases reveal vast development potential. In 2008, leases spanned ∼65% of the region, including 62% on peatlands and 59% of community-managed lands, yet <10% of lease area was planted. Projecting business as usual (BAU), by 2020 ∼40% of regional and 35% of community lands are cleared for oil palm, generating 26% of net carbon emissions. Intact forest cover declines to 4%, and the proportion of emissions sourced from peatlands increases 38%. Prohibiting intact and logged forest and peatland conversion to oil palm reduces emissions only 4% below BAU, because of continued uncontrolled fire. Protecting logged forests achieves greater carbon emissions reductions (21%) than protecting intact forests alone (9%) and is critical for mitigating carbon emissions. Extensive allocated leases constrain land management options, requiring trade-offs among oil palm production, carbon emissions mitigation, and maintaining community landholdings.

Carbon outcomes of major land-cover transitions in SE Asia: great uncertainties and REDD+ policy implications.

Policy makers across the tropics propose that carbon finance could provide incentives for forest frontier communities to transition away from swidden agriculture (slash-and-burn or shifting cultivation) to other systems that potentially reduce emissions and/or increase carbon sequestration. However, there is little certainty regarding the carbon outcomes of many key land-use transitions at the center of current policy debates. Our meta-analysis of over 250 studies reporting above- and below-ground carbon estimates for different land-use types indicates great uncertainty in the net total ecosystem carbon changes that can be expected from many transitions, including the replacement of various types of swidden agriculture with oil palm, rubber, or some other types of agroforestry systems. These transitions are underway throughout Southeast Asia, and are at the heart of REDD+ debates. Exceptions of unambiguous carbon outcomes are the abandonment of any type of agriculture to allow forest regeneration (a certain positive carbon outcome) and expansion of agriculture into mature forest (a certain negative carbon outcome). With respect to swiddening, our meta-analysis supports a reassessment of policies that encourage land-cover conversion away from these [especially long-fallow] systems to other more cash-crop-oriented systems producing ambiguous carbon stock changes - including oil palm and rubber. In some instances, lengthening fallow periods of an existing swidden system may produce substantial carbon benefits, as would conversion from intensely cultivated lands to high-biomass plantations and some other types of agroforestry. More field studies are needed to provide better data of above- and below-ground carbon stocks before informed recommendations or policy decisions can be made regarding which land-use regimes optimize or increase carbon sequestration. As some transitions may negatively impact other ecosystem services, food security, and local livelihoods, the entire carbon and noncarbon benefit stream should also be taken into account before prescribing transitions with ambiguous carbon benefits.

An assessment of the fine sediment dynamics in an upland river system: INCA-Sed modifications and implications for fisheries.

There is a need for better links between hydrology and ecology, specifically between landscapes and riverscapes to understand how processes and factors controlling the transport and storage of environmental pollution have affected or will affect the freshwater biota. Here we show how the INCA modelling framework, specifically INCA-Sed (the Integrated Catchments model for Sediments) can be used to link sediment delivery from the landscape to sediment changes in-stream. INCA-Sed is a dynamic, process-based, daily time step model. The first complete description of the equations used in the INCA-Sed software (version 1.9.11) is presented. This is followed by an application of INCA-Sed made to the River Lugg (1077 km(2)) in Wales. Excess suspended sediment can negatively affect salmonid health. The Lugg has a large and potentially threatened population of both Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Brown Trout (Salmo trutta). With the exception of the extreme sediment transport processes, the model satisfactorily simulated both the hydrology and the sediment dynamics in the catchment. Model results indicate that diffuse soil loss is the most important sediment generation process in the catchment. In the River Lugg, the mean annual Guideline Standard for suspended sediment concentration, proposed by UKTAG, of 25 mg l(-1) is only slightly exceeded during the simulation period (1995-2000), indicating only minimal effect on the Atlantic salmon population. However, the daily time step simulation of INCA-Sed also allows the investigation of the critical spawning period. It shows that the sediment may have a significant negative effect on the fish population in years with high sediment runoff. It is proposed that the fine settled particles probably do not affect the salmonid egg incubation process, though suspended particles may damage the gills of fish and make the area unfavourable for spawning if the conditions do not improve.

Agricultural intensification and changes in cultivated areas, 1970-2005.

Does the intensification of agriculture reduce cultivated areas and, in so doing, spare some lands by concentrating production on other lands? Such sparing is important for many reasons, among them the enhanced abilities of released lands to sequester carbon and provide other environmental services. Difficulties measuring the extent of spared land make it impossible to investigate fully the hypothesized causal chain from agricultural intensification to declines in cultivated areas and then to increases in spared land. We analyze the historical circumstances in which rising yields have been accompanied by declines in cultivated areas, thereby leading to land-sparing. We use national-level United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization data on trends in cropland from 1970-2005, with particular emphasis on the 1990-2005 period, for 10 major crop types. Cropland has increased more slowly than population during this period, but paired increases in yields and declines in cropland occurred infrequently, both globally and nationally. Agricultural intensification was not generally accompanied by decline or stasis in cropland area at a national scale during this time period, except in countries with grain imports and conservation set-aside programs. Future projections of cropland abandonment and ensuing environmental services cannot be assumed without explicit policy intervention.

Biotic and abiotic controls on diurnal fluctuations in labile soil phosphorus of a wet tropical forest.

The productivity of many tropical wet forests is generally limited by bioavailable phosphorus (P). Microbial activity is a key regulator of P availability in that it determines both the supply of P through organic matter decomposition and the depletion of bioavailable P through microbial uptake. Both microbial uptake and mineralization occur rapidly, and their net effect on P availability varies with soil moisture, temperature, and soil organic matter quantity and quality. Exploring the mechanisms driving P availability at fine temporal scales can provide insight into the coupling of carbon, water, and nutrient cycles, and ultimately, the response of tropical forests to climate change. Despite the recognized importance of P cycling to the dynamics of wet tropical forests and their potential sensitivity to short-term fluctuations in bioavailable P, the diurnal pattern of P remains poorly understood. This study quantifies diurnal fluctuations in labile soil P and evaluates the importance of biotic and abiotic factors in driving these patterns. To this end, measurements of labile P were made every other hour in a Costa Rican wet tropical forest oxisol. Spatial and temporal variation in Bray-extractable P were investigated in relation to ecosystem carbon flux, soil CO2 efflux, soil moisture, soil temperature, solar radiation, and sap-flow velocity. Spatially averaged bi-hourly (every two hours) labile P ranged from 0.88 to 2.48 microg/g across days. The amplitude in labile P throughout the day was 0.61-0.82 microg/g (41-54% of mean P concentrations) and was characterized by a bimodal pattern with a decrease at midday. Labile P increased with soil CO2 efflux and soil temperature and declined with increasing sap flow and solar radiation. Together, soil CO2 efflux, soil temperature, and sap flow explained 86% of variation in labile P.

Rain forest nutrient cycling and productivity in response to large-scale litter manipulation.

Litter-induced pulses of nutrient availability could play an important role in the productivity and nutrient cycling of forested ecosystems, especially tropical forests. Tropical forests experience such pulses as a result of wet-dry seasonality and during major climatic events, such as strong El Niños. We hypothesized that (1) an increase in the quantity and quality of litter inputs would stimulate leaf litter production, woody growth, and leaf litter nutrient cycling, and (2) the timing and magnitude of this response would be influenced by soil fertility and forest age. To test these hypotheses in a Costa Rican wet tropical forest, we established a large-scale litter manipulation experiment in two secondary forest sites and four old-growth forest sites of differing soil fertility. In replicated plots at each site, leaves and twigs (< 2 cm diameter) were removed from a 400-m2 area and added to an adjacent 100-m2 area. This transfer was the equivalent of adding 5-25 kg/ha of organic P to the forest floor. We analyzed leaf litter mass, [N] and [P], and N and P inputs for addition, removal, and control plots over a two-year period. We also evaluated basal area increment of trees in removal and addition plots. There was no response of forest productivity or nutrient cycling to litter removal; however, litter addition significantly increased leaf litter production and N and P inputs 4-5 months following litter application. Litter production increased as much as 92%, and P and N inputs as much as 85% and 156%, respectively. In contrast, litter manipulation had no significant effect on woody growth. The increase in leaf litter production and N and P inputs were significantly positively related to the total P that was applied in litter form. Neither litter treatment nor forest type influenced the temporal pattern of any of the variables measured. Thus, environmental factors such as rainfall drive temporal variability in litter and nutrient inputs, while nutrient release from decomposing litter influences the magnitude. Seasonal or annual variation in leaf litter mass, such as occurs in strong El Niño events, could positively affect leaf litter nutrient cycling and forest productivity, indicating an ability of tropical trees to rapidly respond to increased nutrient availability.

Ecological feedbacks following deforestation create the potential for a catastrophic ecosystem shift in tropical dry forest.

The long-term ecological response to recurrent deforestation associated with shifting cultivation remains poorly investigated, especially in the dry tropics. We present a study of phosphorus (P) dynamics in the southern Yucatán, highlighting the possibility of abrupt shifts in biogeochemical cycling resulting from positive feedbacks between vegetation and its limiting resources. After three cultivation-fallow cycles, available soil P declines by 44%, and one-time P inputs from biomass burning decline by 76% from mature forest levels. Interception of dust-borne P ("canopy trapping") declines with lower plant biomass and leaf area, limiting deposition in secondary forest. Potential leaching losses are greater in secondary than in mature forest, but the difference is very small compared with the difference in P inputs. The decline in new P from atmospheric deposition creates a long-term negative ecosystem balance for phosphorus. The reduction in soil P availability will feed back to further limit biomass recovery and may induce a shift to sparser vegetation. Degradation induced by hydrological and biogeochemical feedbacks on P cycling under shifting cultivation will affect farmers in the near future. Without financial support to encourage the use of fertilizer, farmers could increase the fallow period, clear new land, or abandon agriculture for off-farm employment. Their response will determine the regional balance between forest loss and forest regrowth, as well as the frequency of use and rate of recovery at a local scale, further feeding back on ecological processes at multiple scales.

Land change in the southern Yucatán and Calakmul biosphere reserve: effects on habitat and biodiversity.

The southern Yucatán contains the largest expanse of seasonal tropical forests remaining in Mexico, forming an ecocline between the drier north of the peninsula and the humid Petén, Guatemala. The Calakmul Biosphere Reserve resides in the center of this region as part of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor. The reserve's functions are examined in regard to land changes throughout the region, generated over the last 40 years by increasing settlement and the expansion and intensification of agriculture. These changes are documented from 1987/1988 to 2000, and their implications regarding the capacity of the reserve to protect the ecocline, forest habitats, and butterfly diversity are addressed. The results indicate that the current landscape matrix serves the biotic diversity of the reserve, with several looming caveats involving the loss of humid forests and the interruption of biota flow across the ecocline, and the amount and proximity of older forest patches beyond the reserve. The highly dynamic land cover changes underway in this economic frontier warrant an adaptive management approach that monitors the major changes underway in mature forest types, while the paucity of systematic ecological and environment-development studies is rectified in order to inform policy and practice.

Changes in forest biomass litter dynamics and soils following shifting cultivation in southern México: an overview

Se evaluó el impacto relativo de los condicionantes ambientales y los efectos del uso de la tierra a nivel de lotes, sobre procesos del ecosistema en un bosque tropical seco del sur de la Penísula de Yucatán, a través del muestreo a lo largo de gradientes naturales y hechos por el hombre. Los objetivos fueron 1)describir los gradientes ambientes naturales de precipitación y suelos en escala regional, 2)explorar la respuesta de propiedades clave y procesos del ecosistema a tales gradientes, y 3)comprender los efectos de la edad del bosque sobre lotes dentro de una región dada del gradiente. Se estudiaron la biomasa superficial (viva y detrítica), la producción y química de hojarasca, y los suelos. En cada uno de 3 sitios con un gradiente de lluvia estacional entre 900-1400 mm/año se muestraron 10 a 13 lotes, imcluyendo bosque secundario y maduro. La caída de hojarasca aumentó y su contenido de nutrientes bajó en el pico de la estación seca. En el bosque maduro los factores ambientales asociados al gradiente de precipitación limitaron la producción de hojarasca, biomasa y materia orgánica del suelo. La historia humana del área, incluyendo la tala y decisiones acerca de áreas no afectadas (p.e. vertientes altas), añadió información crítica para comprender diferencias en la biomasa superficial del bosque maduro. Todos los aspectos de estructura y función en bosques secundarios jóvenes (biomasa viva superficial, producción de hojarasca, masa en el piso y propiedades críticos del suelo) están fuertemente influenciadas por la edad del lote. La recuperación de los niveles de bosque maduro se estima conservadoramente en 55-95 años. P y/o N parecen limitar procesos esenciales del ecosistema como producción de hojarasca, descomposición y biomasa superficial. Se sugiere que una vez superada la limitación de agua, el P se hace limitante. La evidencia incluye mayor reabsorción de P de la hojarasca, una fuerte respuesta de la concentración de P, pero no de la de N, al gradiente de precipitación, y un aumento en la eficiencia de uso de P con el umento en la edad del lote. La presencia de humanos en el sur de Yucatán resulta en mayores cambios del ecosistema que aquellos inducidos por variación natural del ambiente en escala regional. Para comprender mejor estos paisajes y para llevar estudios puntuales a evaluaciones regionales y globales, resulta vital integrar los impactos humanos en los procesos del ecosistema